Linux and Open Source in 2005

RFG analyst Stacey Quandt forecasts several fundamental shifts in the Linux and open source markets in 2005. Among the changes: new Linux adoption drivers, emergence of new Linux markets such as Linux-based mobile phones, new open source business models, rekindled VC interest in open source, and a subtle shift in open source ROI priorities among private and public sector technology users.

Ms. Quandt predicts that 2005 will be a landmark year for open source. Key predictions for open source include:

Increased viability and opportunity for professional services based on new open source business models

Continued emphasis on 2004 selection criteria, with new and additional emphasis on considerations such as top-line benefits, user--rather than vendor--initiatives, and competitive responses from Microsoft and Sun

Renewed yet selective interest from the VC community in open source companies in specific market segments

Meanwhile, Ms. Quandt summarizes Linux market evolution during 2004 and predicts that embedded Linux solutions -- in the home, medical devices and other vertical industries -- will greater than traditional industry IT deployments.

Other predictions for Linux in 2005 include:

A shift in the primary driver for Linux adoption

Countering tactics aimed at slowing migration to Linux

Continued Linux server growth for key enterprise applications and high performance technical computing, plus a significant increase in activity in the virtualization space

Continued Linux growth in established industries, including government, oil and gas, etc.
Impacts of enterprise distribution provider competition on ISVs

Continuing fall-out from the legal scene

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